Expected on 12 December 2023, the agreement on the Global Budget reached at COP28 was finally adopted on 13 December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The text calls on countries to « make a transition away from fossil fuels » and to accelerate this action « in this crucial decade, in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 ». Afrik21 looks back at this declaration without Nassim Oulmane, Acting Director of Technology, Climate Change and Natural Resources at the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA).
Boris Ngounou (BN): What
do you think of the agreement on the Global Budget reached at COP28?
Nassim Oulmane: For the first time, the
COP has called for transitional action to move away from fossil fuels. For
Africa, which accounts for less than 4% of all cumulative and current
emissions, the challenge is to ensure that climate change does not reduce our
chances of developing and achieving our Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
and the objectives of Africa’s Agenda 2063. To achieve this, the remaining
carbon budget must be adjusted to give Africa the space it needs to build and
secure its development and transformation trajectory.
This objective can only be
achieved if industrialised nations begin immediately to phase out fossil fuels,
while helping developing countries, particularly in Africa, to invest in
transitional fossil fuels in order to strengthen their capacity to make the
transition to green energy. It is important to replace unilateral,
uncoordinated actions that create barriers to these pathways with concerted,
multilateral efforts to facilitate these goals. We must always bear in mind
that 600 million Africans still have no access to energy. As a result, the dual
climate and development challenge facing African countries requires the
promotion of investment in transitional energies, particularly gas, to ensure
that the continent rapidly closes the energy access gap and industrialises at
the pace needed to meet its development goals and facilitate the transition to
clean energy. It is fundamentally the just energy transition that we are
seeking, as part of a global phase-out based on common but differentiated
responsibilities and in the light of national circumstances. This is the fair
and equitable result that a united approach to the COPs must produce.
At the Dubai climate
summit, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) organised a
plethora of panels and sessions on the SDGs and adaptation to climate change in
Africa. How would you assess this?
The ECA has indeed
organised numerous events to bring Africa’s unique voice to the fore and better
explain the continent’s positions and needs to the rest of the world. Financing
remains the main obstacle to a global and inclusive climate response. It is of
course frustrating that the target of providing $100 billion a year in climate
finance has still not been met. It is also frustrating that the parties were
unable to agree on the new collective quantified financing target at COP28.
Despite this, many promising pledges and initiatives were announced at the
climate summit held in Dubai from 30 November to 12 December 2023.
However, many of these
initiatives will not materialise unless adequate, accessible, predictable and
new funding is made available as a matter of urgency. It was important for
these panels to point out that the funding gap is enormous. Between 5.8 and 5.9
trillion dollars will be needed to implement nationally determined
contributions (NDCs) between now and 2030, 215 to 387 billion dollars are
needed each year for adaptation, and 4.3 trillion dollars for investment in
clean energy. These are colossal sums that will not be easily accessible from
existing public funds. It is clear that making affordable finance available,
restructuring debt, encouraging new and innovative forms of finance, and
reforming international financial institutions and systems will make it
possible to achieve the MDGs and combat climate change.
Another subject discussed
by these panels concerns carbon markets.
The historic consensus
reached at COP 28 calling on the parties to move away from fossil fuels will
certainly increase demand for carbon credits, strongly stimulated by the
increased commitments of public and private investors to reduce residual carbon
emissions from energy systems, industry, built infrastructure and transport in
particular. This demand will not be met by the current supply of credits on all
the existing markets, which represents a huge gap. Thanks to their vast carbon
sinks in tropical forests and other terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and
their high potential for renewable energy production, African countries will be
able to generate and trade credible and additional high-quality credits to fill
these supply gaps and help accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy.
They will also be able to
generate additional revenues to support adaptation, resilience, the SDGs and
other priorities in their development plans. To enable African countries to exploit
these opportunities effectively and fully, the ECA is working with partners
such as the Congo Basin Climate Commission to set up high-integrity regional
carbon markets that generate additional and credible credits, and preserve
environmental integrity. We also had panels on the blue economy and the Great
Blue Wall initiative, and with the African Islands Climate Commission to make
the blue economy a pillar of the continent’s development and of Africa’s
climate action.
COP28 also saw the
establishment of the « loss and damage » fund, with an initial
contribution of around 725 million dollars, according to the AfDB. In your
opinion, what needs to be done to ensure that this fund quickly meets the needs
of African countries, which are still the most vulnerable to natural disasters
and the consequences of climate change?
On the very first day of
the conference, the COP28 Presidency paved the way by pledging $100 million for
the operationalisation and initial capitalisation of the « Loss and
Damage » fund ($200 million was needed to make the fund operational). By
the second day of the international meeting, nearly $725 million had been
pledged to the new fund. After almost three decades of negotiations on the
creation of the fund, this is a considerable step forward and demonstrates the
host’s intention to achieve concrete results at the end of COP 28.
However, it should be noted that $725 million
is a far cry from the estimated $3 trillion needed to address the loss and
damage caused by climate change and to build resilience. The financing needs
are much greater. Much also remains to be done to define the fund’s operating
rules, in particular its governance, the methods for assessing damage and
quantifying compensation, the disbursement procedures, etc. The ECA has been at
the forefront of helping African states to build resilience into their
economies, ecosystems, infrastructure and livelihoods through initiatives such
as support for the development and implementation of NDCs, capacity building
for the integration of climate information into infrastructure and investment
planning, and the conceptualisation of the African Climate Change Strategy.
The ECA has also
facilitated the development of a tool based on a climate model to predict and
assess losses and damage in African countries, which has enabled a better
assessment of the needs of African countries. Today, it is important to develop
innovative tools based on methodologies that are accepted and agreed at
multilateral level so that the operationalisation of this fund can rapidly
respond to the emergencies and needs of the continent which, I would remind
you, is the most vulnerable and the most impacted by the consequences of
climate change. This is what we are working on with our partners.
Interview by Boris Ngounou
